Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Frost 50.3% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 76.3%
Defensive zone
Frost 55.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 68.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 67.4%
32.6%
67.4%
Stepan
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Stepan
Frost
Last 8: Stepan 6-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Stepan
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
49.4% (3,598)
-2.9%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
55.5% (625)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
52.8% (36)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Home / Away
Stepan
Frost
Home
47.6% (6,608)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Stepan
Frost
P1
47.5%
50.8%
P2
45.6%
51.1%
P3
46.8%
48.5%
OT
40.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.5%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 06:44 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 11:20 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 13:27 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |