Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Frost 48.7% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 54.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 87.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 71.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Stepan
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Stepan
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
47.4% (426)
+7.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
63.9% (36)
-63.9%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
20.0% (5)
+44.7%
On power play, Frost has a +63.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Frost is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Stepan
Frost
Home
54.5% (222)
51.1% (221)
Away
57.2% (222)
45.9% (246)
By Period
Stepan
Frost
P1
57.5%
47.5%
P2
54.7%
52.3%
P3
55.9%
44.7%
Final 5 min
57.5%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 11:20 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 13:27 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |