Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Stepan wins 38.4% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 39.9% vs Thompson 53.7% (-15.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 95.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 72.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 88.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Stepan
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Stepan
Thompson
Last 9: Stepan 1-8 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Stepan
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
7
Stepan
Thompson
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (630)
56.1% (478)
-17.5%
Power Play
45.3% (64)
57.1% (14)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
22.7% (22)
47.6% (164)
-24.9%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Stepan is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Stepan shoots right. Thompson is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Stepan
Thompson
Home
39.0% (364)
55.2% (315)
Away
38.0% (355)
53.3% (349)
By Period
Stepan
Thompson
P1
39.4%
57.5%
P2
40.6%
54.2%
P3
36.4%
51.1%
OT
12.5%
54.5%
Final 5 min
40.4%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 2 | 08:01 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 1 | 15:41 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 1 | 19:21 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |