Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 55.7%). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Thompson 54.3% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 56.4%
Defensive zone
Thompson 59.4%
Neutral zone
Thompson 57.5%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Stepan
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Stepan
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
55.5% (236)
-1.0%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
60.0% (5)
-60.0%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
56.5% (46)
+8.2%
On power play, Thompson has a +60.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Thompson is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Stepan
Thompson
Home
54.5% (222)
53.1% (128)
Away
57.2% (222)
57.9% (159)
By Period
Stepan
Thompson
P1
57.5%
59.0%
P2
54.7%
55.4%
P3
55.9%
52.6%
Final 5 min
57.5%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 1 | 04:28 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |