Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Patrick 51.0% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Patrick 53.1%
Defensive zone
Patrick 54.1%
Neutral zone
Patrick 57.3%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Stepan
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Stepan
Patrick
Last 9: Stepan 5-4 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
2
Stepan
Patrick
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
Patrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
50.6% (1,978)
-4.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
57.5% (120)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
57.7% (26)
-13.5%
On penalty kill, Patrick has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Patrick is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (683).
Home / Away
Stepan
Patrick
Home
47.6% (6,608)
49.7% (1,106)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
52.5% (1,018)
By Period
Stepan
Patrick
P1
47.5%
52.9%
P2
45.6%
49.1%
P3
46.8%
51.3%
OT
40.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2022 | 1 | 08:27 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 11:00 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 04:05 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 14:08 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 1 | 10:26 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 19:38 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |