Scouting Report
Nolan Patrick holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.5% vs Patrick 51.1% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Patrick 56.3%
Defensive zone
Patrick 58.0%
Neutral zone
Patrick 56.2%
Result
Nolan Patrick favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Stepan
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Stepan
Patrick
Last 7: Stepan 5-2 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Patrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Patrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (991)
50.8% (732)
-4.0%
Power Play
48.8% (211)
57.8% (45)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (174)
50.0% (2)
-1.7%
On power play, Patrick has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Stepan is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (418).
Stepan shoots right. Patrick is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (205).
Home / Away
Stepan
Patrick
Home
48.6% (666)
51.5% (388)
Away
46.1% (710)
50.9% (391)
By Period
Stepan
Patrick
P1
46.3%
53.7%
P2
50.7%
48.2%
P3
45.5%
52.5%
OT
39.1%
25.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.3%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 11:00 | Neutral | Nolan Patrick |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 04:05 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 14:08 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 1 | 10:26 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Nov 5, 2018 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |