Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Bergeron 61.2% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bergeron 83.7%
Defensive zone
Stepan 52.0%
Neutral zone
Bergeron 66.9%
Result
Patrice Bergeron favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Stepan
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stepan
Bergeron
Last 7: Stepan 4-3 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Bergeron
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
1
2
Stepan
Bergeron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
63.8% (1,102)
-9.3%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
65.3% (288)
-65.3%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
47.6% (210)
+17.1%
On power play, Bergeron has a +65.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Bergeron is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bergeron
Home
54.5% (222)
62.5% (882)
Away
57.2% (222)
61.3% (718)
By Period
Stepan
Bergeron
P1
57.5%
62.5%
P2
54.7%
62.7%
P3
55.9%
60.6%
Final 5 min
57.5%
61.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
61.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2022 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 3 | 00:41 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 1 | 19:34 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 1 | 14:37 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 3 | 04:05 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 2 | 05:05 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |