Scouting Report
Patrik Elias holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Elias on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Stepan wins 38.4% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 39.9% vs Elias 45.8% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 76.9%
Defensive zone
Elias 60.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 56.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 63.1%
63.1%
36.9%
Stepan
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Stepan
Elias
Last 9: Stepan 3-6 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Elias
1
2
Stepan
Elias
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Elias
2
4
Stepan
Elias
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (630)
44.5% (407)
-5.9%
Power Play
45.3% (64)
47.8% (23)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
22.7% (22)
46.8% (62)
-24.1%
On penalty kill, Elias has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Stepan is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Stepan shoots right. Elias is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
Stepan
Elias
Home
39.0% (364)
44.8% (252)
Away
38.0% (355)
45.1% (246)
By Period
Stepan
Elias
P1
39.4%
43.0%
P2
40.6%
47.8%
P3
36.4%
43.4%
OT
12.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
40.4%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2011 | 2 | 08:18 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 18, 2011 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 3, 2011 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 3, 2011 | 2 | 16:25 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 3, 2011 | 2 | 12:21 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 3, 2011 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 3, 2011 | 2 | 01:35 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 3, 2011 | 1 | 07:10 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 2 | 00:28 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |