Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.5% vs 44.1%). Look for Elias on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.1% vs Elias 44.5% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Elias leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 61.6%
Defensive zone
Elias 71.2%
Neutral zone
Elias 51.7%
Result
Patrik Elias favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Stepan
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Stepan
Elias
Last 10: Stepan 3-7 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Elias
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Elias
1
4
Stepan
Elias
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Elias
2
5
Stepan
Elias
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (680)
44.7% (954)
+0.2%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
46.9% (196)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
29.8% (57)
36.1% (180)
-6.3%
On penalty kill, Elias has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Stepan is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (620).
Stepan shoots right. Elias is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Home / Away
Stepan
Elias
Home
45.6% (463)
46.0% (692)
Away
43.3% (404)
42.2% (677)
By Period
Stepan
Elias
P1
50.2%
40.7%
P2
39.4%
46.8%
P3
45.7%
44.0%
OT
38.9%
53.3%
Final 5 min
48.2%
41.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.5%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2012 | 2 | 00:53 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 2 | 00:33 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 19, 2012 | 1 | 02:48 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 02:27 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 1 | 13:16 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 27, 2012 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 11:50 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 08:31 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 05:03 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 1 | 04:58 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 31, 2012 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 05:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |