Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Elias on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs Elias 40.5% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Elias leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Elias 64.0%
Defensive zone
Elias 61.8%
Neutral zone
Elias 63.8%
Result
Patrik Elias favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Stepan
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Stepan
Elias
Last 10: Stepan 4-6 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Elias
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Elias
0
4
Stepan
Elias
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
2
Stepan
Elias
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
39.3% (550)
+4.2%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
50.0% (60)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
27.0% (63)
+16.0%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Stepan is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (812).
Stepan shoots right. Elias is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
Stepan
Elias
Home
45.6% (629)
39.1% (335)
Away
42.5% (603)
39.1% (338)
By Period
Stepan
Elias
P1
44.7%
39.0%
P2
43.7%
35.4%
P3
43.9%
44.4%
OT
40.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
36.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
39.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 19:04 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 15:36 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 08:49 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 00:50 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 09:54 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 02:14 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 00:30 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 00:49 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 05:21 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |