Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.1% vs Gaustad 56.7% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 87.4%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 63.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 68.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Stepan
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stepan
Gaustad
Last 5: Stepan 1-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Stepan
Gaustad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
3
Stepan
Gaustad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (680)
57.8% (854)
-12.9%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
56.0% (25)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
29.8% (57)
55.1% (263)
-25.3%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Stepan is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (620).
Stepan shoots right. Gaustad is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Stepan
Gaustad
Home
45.6% (463)
61.3% (633)
Away
43.3% (404)
52.4% (517)
By Period
Stepan
Gaustad
P1
50.2%
57.9%
P2
39.4%
55.3%
P3
45.7%
58.3%
OT
38.9%
64.3%
Final 5 min
48.2%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.5%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 07:38 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 1, 2012 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |