Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 24-12 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 94.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 59.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 90.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Stepan
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
24
(36 meetings)
12
24
Stepan
Gaustad
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
11
2
Stepan
Gaustad
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
14
Stepan
Gaustad
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
8
Stepan
Gaustad
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
58.2% (4,334)
-11.7%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
65.4% (188)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
54.8% (1,290)
-10.6%
On power play, Gaustad has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Home / Away
Stepan
Gaustad
Home
47.6% (6,608)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Stepan
Gaustad
P1
47.5%
58.2%
P2
45.6%
56.4%
P3
46.8%
58.3%
OT
40.7%
66.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2015 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 1 | 06:05 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 05:36 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 2, 2015 | 2 | 15:39 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 2, 2015 | 2 | 05:24 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 2, 2015 | 1 | 17:25 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 16:08 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 12:53 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 12:49 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 05:30 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 2 | 13:47 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 10:59 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 10:54 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 01:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |