Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Rakell on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Rakell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Rakell 44.9% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Rakell leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Rakell 58.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 65.7%
Neutral zone
Rakell 53.0%
Result
Rickard Rakell favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Stepan
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Stepan
Rakell
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rakell
1
2
Stepan
Rakell
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Rakell
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rakell
3
4
Stepan
Rakell
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
44.4% (1,864)
+2.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
50.3% (197)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
21.7% (23)
+22.5%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Rakell is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (751).
Home / Away
Stepan
Rakell
Home
47.6% (6,608)
46.7% (1,041)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
42.7% (1,044)
By Period
Stepan
Rakell
P1
47.5%
45.6%
P2
45.6%
42.1%
P3
46.8%
46.4%
OT
40.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Rakell
40.0%▲
37.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2018 | 1 | 11:34 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Oct 5, 2017 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 3 | 02:45 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 2 | 09:22 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 1 | 05:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 22, 2015 | 3 | 17:35 | Offensive | Rickard Rakell |
| Nov 4, 2013 | 2 | 18:36 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 4, 2013 | 2 | 10:01 | Neutral | Rickard Rakell |