Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Matthias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.5% vs Matthias 43.7% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 79.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 52.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 56.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Stepan
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Stepan
Matthias
Last 9: Stepan 6-3 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthias
1
3
Stepan
Matthias
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
0
Stepan
Matthias
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Matthias
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (1,141)
41.3% (358)
+2.5%
Power Play
52.2% (253)
62.5% (16)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
42.4% (59)
+0.8%
On power play, Matthias has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Stepan is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,028).
Stepan shoots right. Matthias is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (157).
Home / Away
Stepan
Matthias
Home
47.8% (828)
48.5% (198)
Away
42.0% (684)
37.0% (235)
By Period
Stepan
Matthias
P1
49.5%
41.9%
P2
42.0%
47.5%
P3
44.3%
37.5%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.2%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2014 | 3 | 00:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 12:16 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 3 | 02:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 3 | 02:51 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 2 | 06:16 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |