Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.5% vs 46.4%). Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Matthias 46.6% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 23-20 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 58.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 53.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 53.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Stepan
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
20
(43 meetings)
23
20
Stepan
Matthias
Last 10: Stepan 7-3 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
8
7
Stepan
Matthias
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthias
4
5
Stepan
Matthias
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
11
8
Stepan
Matthias
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
46.4% (1,716)
+0.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
56.3% (103)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
41.7% (175)
+2.5%
On power play, Matthias has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Matthias is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (727).
Home / Away
Stepan
Matthias
Home
47.6% (6,608)
46.9% (933)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
45.9% (1,069)
By Period
Stepan
Matthias
P1
47.5%
47.8%
P2
45.6%
49.4%
P3
46.8%
41.6%
OT
40.7%
45.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 05:31 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 14:00 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 1 | 16:01 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 3 | 00:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 12:16 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 3 | 02:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 3 | 02:51 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 2 | 06:16 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 3 | 04:43 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 2 | 05:04 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 18, 2013 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Apr 18, 2013 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 18, 2013 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |