Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Novak 46.5% (+11.9%)
Offensive zone
Novak 67.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 78.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 54.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Stepan
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
43.2% (118)
+11.3%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
47.8% (23)
-47.8%
On power play, Novak has a +47.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Novak is 39.6% vs right-shot opponents (53).
Home / Away
Stepan
Novak
Home
54.5% (222)
50.7% (71)
Away
57.2% (222)
37.1% (70)
By Period
Stepan
Novak
P1
57.5%
44.7%
P2
54.7%
50.0%
P3
55.9%
38.9%
Final 5 min
57.5%
35.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.0%