Scouting Report
Matt Ellis holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Brassard on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Brassard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Ellis shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 47.0% vs Ellis 49.4% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brassard 52.1%
Defensive zone
Ellis 70.6%
Neutral zone
Ellis 51.2%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Brassard
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Brassard
Ellis
Last 6: Brassard 4-2 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
1
Brassard
Ellis
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
1
0
Brassard
Ellis
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brassard
3
1
Brassard
Ellis
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (739)
49.1% (53)
-3.9%
Power Play
54.6% (130)
50.0% (2)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (9)
33.3% (3)
+22.3%
On penalty kill, Brassard has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Brassard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Brassard shoots left. Ellis is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (38).
Home / Away
Brassard
Ellis
Home
47.9% (447)
60.0% (20)
Away
45.4% (441)
42.1% (38)
By Period
Brassard
Ellis
P1
48.7%
48.0%
P2
44.3%
54.5%
P3
47.2%
36.4%
Final 5 min
45.2%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 12:47 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 02:34 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |