Scouting Report
Derick Brassard holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Brassard on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 49.1% vs Ellis 46.8% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Brassard leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Brassard 77.9%
Defensive zone
Ellis 50.8%
Neutral zone
Brassard 52.7%
Result
Derick Brassard favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Brassard
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Brassard
Ellis
Last 10: Brassard 5-5 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
2
1
Brassard
Ellis
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
2
1
Brassard
Ellis
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Brassard
Ellis
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (8,464)
47.3% (607)
+1.4%
Power Play
52.3% (1,260)
28.6% (7)
+23.7%
Penalty Kill
50.3% (179)
42.1% (95)
+8.2%
On power play, Brassard has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Brassard is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (6,507).
Brassard shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Home / Away
Brassard
Ellis
Home
50.6% (5,020)
48.5% (303)
Away
47.6% (4,901)
44.8% (406)
By Period
Brassard
Ellis
P1
49.0%
50.0%
P2
49.8%
46.2%
P3
48.4%
41.3%
OT
51.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
49.1%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2015 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 04:47 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Feb 20, 2015 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 3 | 04:28 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 3 | 04:22 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 2 | 17:49 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 12:47 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 02:34 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |