Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Shore on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Shore wins 40.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shore 44.0% vs MacKinnon 44.2% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 59.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 51.8%
Neutral zone
Shore 50.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Shore
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Shore
MacKinnon
Last 5: Shore 3-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Shore
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shore
2
1
Shore
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shore
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
40.0% (170)
42.8% (1,039)
-2.8%
Power Play
45.8% (24)
50.8% (118)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (15)
46.2% (26)
+0.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Shore is 40.3% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Shore shoots left. MacKinnon is 42.2% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Home / Away
Shore
MacKinnon
Home
38.0% (121)
48.0% (586)
Away
45.5% (88)
39.5% (597)
By Period
Shore
MacKinnon
P1
47.9%
46.1%
P2
33.8%
41.5%
P3
40.6%
43.8%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.3%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shore
52.0%▲
50.5%
41.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2019 | 2 | 13:40 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 1 | 11:40 | Offensive | Devin Shore |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 1 | 06:54 | Neutral | Devin Shore |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 1 | 03:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 1 | 00:50 | Neutral | Devin Shore |