Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Penner on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Penner wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 43.3% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Penner 61.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 53.9%
Neutral zone
Penner 55.4%
Result
Dustin Penner favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Penner
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Penner
Pavelski
Last 7: Penner 3-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Penner
2
1
Penner
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Penner
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Penner
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (214)
53.6% (8,791)
-12.9%
Power Play
45.5% (112)
58.2% (2,122)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (60)
50.9% (1,138)
-14.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Penner is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (132).
Penner shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Penner
Pavelski
Home
44.4% (207)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
38.3% (183)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Penner
Pavelski
P1
36.1%
53.5%
P2
36.6%
55.2%
P3
53.6%
53.9%
OT
25.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
46.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
41.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2013 | 1 | 17:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 3 | 17:44 | Neutral | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 2 | 14:08 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 1 | 03:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |