Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Penner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Penner wins 32.4% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 44.2% vs Backlund 47.7% (-15.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 55.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 88.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 70.4%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Penner
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Penner
Backlund
Last 6: Penner 4-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Penner
4
0
Penner
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Penner
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
34.1% (41)
47.2% (1,002)
-13.1%
Power Play
16.7% (6)
46.7% (150)
-30.0%
On power play, Backlund has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Penner is 32.4% vs left-shot opponents (34).
Penner shoots left. Backlund is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Penner
Backlund
Home
24.1% (29)
48.3% (633)
Away
44.4% (18)
46.7% (689)
By Period
Penner
Backlund
P1
33.3%
49.2%
P2
28.6%
48.9%
P3
36.4%
45.4%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
20.0%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
31.9%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2013 | 3 | 15:06 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Oct 16, 2013 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 16, 2013 | 1 | 10:38 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Oct 16, 2013 | 1 | 09:22 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 16, 2013 | 1 | 05:51 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Oct 16, 2013 | 1 | 05:44 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |