Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Penner wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 44.6% vs Kesler 57.0% (-14.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Penner 71.2%
Defensive zone
Penner 59.7%
Neutral zone
Penner 68.1%
Result
Dustin Penner favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Penner
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Penner
Kesler
Last 9: Penner 3-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
2
Penner
Kesler
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
3
Penner
Kesler
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Penner
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (151)
57.3% (1,022)
-16.2%
Power Play
50.0% (92)
61.5% (200)
-11.5%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (59)
54.9% (257)
-19.3%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Penner is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (109).
Penner shoots left. Kesler is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,091).
Home / Away
Penner
Kesler
Home
47.5% (158)
58.6% (766)
Away
37.8% (148)
56.2% (730)
By Period
Penner
Kesler
P1
38.1%
58.9%
P2
36.2%
56.8%
P3
54.7%
57.5%
OT
27.3%
31.6%
Final 5 min
50.6%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
42.8%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2011 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 1 | 07:35 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 12, 2010 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 12, 2010 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Dustin Penner |
| Nov 2, 2010 | 3 | 16:40 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 2, 2010 | 2 | 00:31 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |