Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Penner wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 43.3% vs Kesler 55.9% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Penner 77.6%
Defensive zone
Kesler 53.9%
Neutral zone
Penner 70.4%
Result
Dustin Penner favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Penner
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Penner
Kesler
Last 9: Penner 3-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
2
Penner
Kesler
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
3
Penner
Kesler
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Penner
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (214)
56.4% (8,095)
-15.7%
Power Play
45.5% (112)
60.7% (1,437)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (60)
50.5% (1,908)
-13.8%
On even strength, Kesler has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Penner is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (132).
Penner shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Penner
Kesler
Home
44.4% (207)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
38.3% (183)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Penner
Kesler
P1
36.1%
56.5%
P2
36.6%
55.9%
P3
53.6%
56.1%
OT
25.0%
46.0%
Final 5 min
46.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
41.5%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2011 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 1 | 07:35 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 12, 2010 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 12, 2010 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Dustin Penner |
| Nov 2, 2010 | 3 | 16:40 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 2, 2010 | 2 | 00:31 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |