Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cozens wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 46.1% vs Thompson 54.3% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 89.8%
Defensive zone
Cozens 64.3%
Neutral zone
Cozens 76.1%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 71.4%
71.4%
28.6%
Cozens
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Cozens
Thompson
Last 5: Cozens 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Cozens
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Cozens
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (746)
55.5% (236)
-9.9%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
60.0% (5)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
56.5% (46)
-22.0%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Cozens is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Cozens shoots right. Thompson is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Cozens
Thompson
Home
43.9% (410)
53.1% (128)
Away
47.2% (430)
57.9% (159)
By Period
Cozens
Thompson
P1
46.4%
59.0%
P2
41.6%
55.4%
P3
49.4%
52.6%
Final 5 min
46.0%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 12:36 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 17:34 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 07:43 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |