Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Larkin 54.2% (-16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 77.8%
Defensive zone
Bedard 77.3%
Neutral zone
Bedard 81.0%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Bedard
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Bedard
Larkin
Last 6: Bedard 1-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Bedard
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
1
0
Bedard
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Bedard
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
52.6% (1,117)
-14.6%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
60.7% (305)
-22.0%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
55.9% (177)
+1.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Bedard
Larkin
Home
40.5% (316)
54.7% (783)
Away
36.2% (340)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Bedard
Larkin
P1
37.2%
55.9%
P2
36.9%
56.1%
P3
40.7%
51.1%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.4%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 1 | 10:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |