Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Staal 46.6% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 71.9%
71.9%
28.1%
Larkin
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Larkin
Staal
Last 7: Larkin 4-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Larkin
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Larkin
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
49.6% (565)
+4.0%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
35.0% (20)
+24.3%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
35.4% (158)
+13.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Staal is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Home / Away
Larkin
Staal
Home
56.6% (700)
46.1% (380)
Away
52.1% (655)
46.3% (363)
By Period
Larkin
Staal
P1
55.4%
45.7%
P2
54.7%
46.2%
P3
52.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
57.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 11:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 3 | 06:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 19:46 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 1 | 02:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |