Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 49.9% vs Spezza 55.1% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 76.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 51.9%
Neutral zone
Spezza 64.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Larkin
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Larkin
Spezza
Last 6: Larkin 4-2 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Larkin
Spezza
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Spezza
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (1,057)
56.4% (654)
-7.9%
Power Play
61.4% (140)
51.7% (87)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (117)
50.0% (6)
-1.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Larkin is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (503).
Larkin shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Larkin
Spezza
Home
51.4% (652)
61.4% (352)
Away
48.5% (662)
50.9% (395)
By Period
Larkin
Spezza
P1
49.1%
60.6%
P2
52.0%
54.8%
P3
48.0%
52.5%
OT
52.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
46.8%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.9%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 13:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 16:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 13:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 1 | 06:13 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |