Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 52.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Spezza 52.4% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Larkin
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Larkin
Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Larkin
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Spezza
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
53.7% (451)
-1.9%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
54.3% (92)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
38.2% (34)
+9.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Larkin shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Larkin
Spezza
Home
55.6% (662)
55.0% (282)
Away
48.3% (542)
50.8% (295)
By Period
Larkin
Spezza
P1
49.9%
53.1%
P2
52.7%
53.2%
P3
53.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 07:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 16:28 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |