Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.3% vs Spezza 53.2% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 51.3%
Defensive zone
Spezza 52.9%
Neutral zone
Spezza 51.1%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Larkin
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Larkin
Spezza
Last 7: Larkin 3-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Spezza
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Larkin
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (973)
52.6% (346)
-1.6%
Power Play
59.5% (252)
61.0% (41)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (137)
72.7% (11)
-23.1%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Larkin is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Larkin shoots left. Spezza is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Larkin
Spezza
Home
54.9% (721)
56.0% (175)
Away
49.6% (641)
52.5% (223)
By Period
Larkin
Spezza
P1
52.4%
56.8%
P2
50.8%
54.3%
P3
54.4%
50.8%
Final 5 min
57.8%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 14:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |