Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Sourdif 45.9% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Sourdif leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.6%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 58.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Larkin
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Larkin
Sourdif
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
2
Larkin
Sourdif
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
5
Larkin
Sourdif
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin
Sourdif
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
44.6% (556)
+7.1%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
50.0% (24)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
61.5% (13)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Home / Away
Larkin
Sourdif
Home
54.0% (6,238)
43.6% (321)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
47.1% (272)
By Period
Larkin
Sourdif
P1
52.7%
43.1%
P2
53.1%
43.9%
P3
52.1%
48.6%
OT
58.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:16 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 13:45 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:14 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 11:28 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 16:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 09:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 08:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:37 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |