Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Patrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Patrick 51.1% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 75.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 59.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 66.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Larkin
Patrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Patrick
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Patrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Patrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Patrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Patrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Patrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (1,228)
50.8% (732)
+2.1%
Power Play
63.1% (214)
57.8% (45)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (145)
50.0% (2)
+5.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Patrick shoots right. Larkin is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Larkin shoots left. Patrick is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Home / Away
Larkin
Patrick
Home
55.8% (805)
51.5% (388)
Away
53.2% (782)
50.9% (391)
By Period
Larkin
Patrick
P1
55.2%
53.7%
P2
53.3%
48.2%
P3
55.1%
52.5%
OT
51.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Patrick
36.0%▼
49.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2019 | 1 | 14:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2019 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Feb 17, 2019 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 17, 2019 | 1 | 00:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Nolan Patrick |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |