Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Nash 46.2% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 53.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Larkin
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Larkin
Nash
Last 7: Larkin 4-3 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Nash
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
1
Larkin
Nash
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
1
2
Larkin
Nash
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (1,228)
46.1% (306)
+6.8%
Power Play
63.1% (214)
16.7% (6)
+46.4%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (145)
38.1% (21)
+17.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +46.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Larkin is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Larkin shoots left. Nash is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nash
Home
55.8% (805)
46.5% (157)
Away
53.2% (782)
43.8% (176)
By Period
Larkin
Nash
P1
55.2%
47.7%
P2
53.3%
39.8%
P3
55.1%
47.2%
Final 5 min
56.1%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2018 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2018 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 02:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 1 | 13:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 1 | 12:00 | Neutral | Riley Nash |