Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 49.9% vs Kesler 52.9% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 66.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Larkin
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Larkin
Kesler
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
3
Larkin
Kesler
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
Larkin
Kesler
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
3
Larkin
Kesler
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (1,057)
55.2% (567)
-6.7%
Power Play
61.4% (140)
54.9% (51)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (117)
45.0% (131)
+3.7%
On even strength, Kesler has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Larkin is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (503).
Larkin shoots left. Kesler is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kesler
Home
51.4% (652)
55.7% (388)
Away
48.5% (662)
50.8% (362)
By Period
Larkin
Kesler
P1
49.1%
56.3%
P2
52.0%
52.5%
P3
48.0%
52.6%
OT
52.6%
35.3%
Final 5 min
46.8%
60.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.9%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 14:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 08:58 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 04:25 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 16:42 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 14:08 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 1 | 14:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 1 | 16:08 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |