Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Kesler 55.9% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 73.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 59.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 62.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 66.8%
66.8%
33.2%
Larkin
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
11
(17 meetings)
6
11
Larkin
Kesler
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
5
Larkin
Kesler
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
3
Larkin
Kesler
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
3
Larkin
Kesler
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
56.4% (8,095)
-4.7%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
60.7% (1,437)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
50.5% (1,908)
-0.3%
On even strength, Kesler has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kesler
Home
54.0% (6,238)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Larkin
Kesler
P1
52.7%
56.5%
P2
53.1%
55.9%
P3
52.1%
56.1%
OT
58.4%
46.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2019 | 1 | 13:49 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 1 | 11:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 14:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 08:58 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 04:25 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 16:42 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 14:08 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 1 | 14:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 1 | 16:08 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2017 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 4, 2017 | 2 | 14:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |