Dylan Larkin vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 61.9%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 58.6%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 60.0%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 61.9%
38.1%
61.9%
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
47.6% (231)
+4.1%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
83.3% (12)
-24.8%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
33.3% (21)
+14.9%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
52.4% (647)
51.2% (164)
Away
52.7% (643)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
52.2%
50.0%
P2
53.1%
46.2%
P3
51.7%
49.5%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:43 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |