Dylan Larkin vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 81.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 67.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
50.3% (479)
+2.3%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
50.0% (28)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
30.0% (50)
+25.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
54.7% (783)
48.9% (270)
Away
54.3% (816)
48.1% (287)
By Period
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
55.9%
48.7%
P2
56.1%
50.0%
P3
51.1%
47.3%
OT
66.7%
36.4%
Final 5 min
51.8%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 02:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 02:26 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 02:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 01:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |