Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kero shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Kero 46.5% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kero 55.7%
Defensive zone
Kero 58.8%
Neutral zone
Kero 57.1%
Result
Tanner Kero favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Larkin
Kero
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Larkin
Kero
Last 8: Larkin 3-5 Kero
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kero
0
1
Larkin
Kero
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kero
0
2
Larkin
Kero
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Kero
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kero
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
47.0% (668)
+4.7%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
42.9% (7)
+15.6%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
31.9% (47)
+18.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kero shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Kero is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kero
Home
54.0% (6,238)
49.1% (332)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
43.3% (390)
By Period
Larkin
Kero
P1
52.7%
47.6%
P2
53.1%
48.8%
P3
52.1%
40.9%
OT
58.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Kero
62.0%▲
48.0%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2017 | 1 | 14:07 | Defensive | Tanner Kero |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tanner Kero |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 06:07 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 06:02 | Neutral | Tanner Kero |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 2 | 01:37 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 1 | 16:25 | Offensive | Tanner Kero |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 1 | 16:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 1 | 10:04 | Neutral | Tanner Kero |