Scouting Report
Dylan Strome holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Strome shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Strome 52.6% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 60.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 61.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 65.3%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Mercer
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Mercer
Strome
Last 7: Mercer 3-4 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Strome
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Strome
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
0
2
Mercer
Strome
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
50.6% (1,002)
-7.0%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
59.9% (299)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
57.9% (19)
+12.1%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Strome is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (432).
Home / Away
Mercer
Strome
Home
41.7% (120)
51.9% (700)
Away
47.6% (145)
53.9% (620)
By Period
Mercer
Strome
P1
44.6%
51.6%
P2
45.4%
53.0%
P3
45.2%
54.3%
OT
0.0%
44.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:57 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 10:41 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 07:13 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 19:31 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 19:23 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |