Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finnie 48.1% vs Backlund 49.7% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finnie 79.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 77.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 54.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Finnie
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Finnie
Backlund
Last 5: Finnie 2-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Finnie
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Finnie
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finnie
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (75)
50.1% (891)
-0.8%
Power Play
36.4% (11)
53.1% (64)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
47.8% (278)
-47.8%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +47.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Finnie is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Finnie shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Home / Away
Finnie
Backlund
Home
47.3% (55)
48.1% (580)
Away
44.1% (34)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Finnie
Backlund
P1
48.4%
45.1%
P2
48.1%
54.7%
P3
41.9%
49.0%
Final 5 min
58.8%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finnie
56.0%▲
46.1%
46.1%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Emmitt Finnie |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 02:47 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 03:47 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 07:44 | Neutral | Emmitt Finnie |