Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finnie 48.1% vs Frost 50.3% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 66.0%
Defensive zone
Frost 51.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 61.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Finnie
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Finnie
Frost
Last 5: Finnie 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Finnie
1
0
Finnie
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Finnie
Frost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finnie
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (75)
49.4% (3,598)
-0.1%
Power Play
36.4% (11)
55.5% (625)
-19.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
52.8% (36)
-52.8%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Finnie is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Finnie shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Finnie
Frost
Home
47.3% (55)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
44.1% (34)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Finnie
Frost
P1
48.4%
50.8%
P2
48.1%
51.1%
P3
41.9%
48.5%
Final 5 min
58.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finnie
56.0%▲
46.1%
46.1%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 07:08 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Emmitt Finnie |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 11:45 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Emmitt Finnie |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Emmitt Finnie |