Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 50.6% vs Duchene 54.1% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 35-32 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 53.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 56.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 55.1%
Result
Eric Staal favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Staal
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
35
(67 meetings)
32
35
Staal
Duchene
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
10
Staal
Duchene
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
12
6
Staal
Duchene
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
14
19
Staal
Duchene
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (10,347)
54.0% (10,249)
-3.5%
Power Play
53.5% (2,023)
56.9% (1,620)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (781)
49.3% (467)
-5.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Staal is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (8,336).
Staal shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (7,938).
Home / Away
Staal
Duchene
Home
52.6% (6,558)
55.6% (6,270)
Away
48.6% (6,664)
52.7% (6,090)
By Period
Staal
Duchene
P1
50.0%
54.5%
P2
51.1%
54.5%
P3
50.4%
53.4%
OT
55.2%
55.9%
Final 5 min
50.6%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 13:19 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 19:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 07:45 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 1 | 14:32 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 1 | 04:07 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 2 | 03:37 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 1 | 03:16 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 14:58 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 09:31 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 00:51 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 00:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |