Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 46.6% vs Backlund 50.8% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 57.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 62.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 55.3%
Result
Eric Staal favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Staal
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Staal
Backlund
Last 7: Staal 3-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Staal
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (565)
51.9% (1,083)
-2.3%
Power Play
35.0% (20)
51.7% (120)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (158)
44.3% (183)
-8.9%
On power play, Backlund has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Staal is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Staal shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Home / Away
Staal
Backlund
Home
46.1% (380)
51.9% (673)
Away
46.3% (363)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Staal
Backlund
P1
45.7%
51.4%
P2
46.2%
50.5%
P3
46.5%
51.4%
Final 5 min
47.4%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:54 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 02:30 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 10:56 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 04:58 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 04:53 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 02:51 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 02:45 | Defensive | Eric Staal |