Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 40 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 50.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 61-32 in 93 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 84.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 92.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 88.3%
Result
Eric Staal favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
61
(93 meetings)
32
61
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 10: Staal 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
11
22
Staal
O'Reilly
33 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
11
29
Staal
O'Reilly
40 total
Neutral Zone
Even
10
10
Staal
O'Reilly
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (10,347)
56.2% (15,103)
-5.7%
Power Play
53.5% (2,023)
58.7% (3,395)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (781)
51.6% (2,769)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (8,336).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
52.6% (6,558)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
48.6% (6,664)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
55.5%
P2
51.1%
57.0%
P3
50.4%
55.2%
OT
55.2%
62.7%
Final 5 min
50.6%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 16:11 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 08:16 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 11:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 17:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 04:21 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 02:55 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 02:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 00:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 11:03 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2019 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |