Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 46.6% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 60.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 66.1%
Neutral zone
Staal 67.1%
Result
Eric Staal favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 8: Staal 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Staal
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Staal
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (565)
56.1% (690)
-6.5%
Power Play
35.0% (20)
64.6% (96)
-29.6%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (158)
45.9% (109)
-10.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
46.1% (380)
58.3% (408)
Away
46.3% (363)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
45.7%
57.7%
P2
46.2%
54.8%
P3
46.5%
55.2%
Final 5 min
47.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 16:11 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 08:16 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 11:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |