Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 51.1% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 81.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 85.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 80.1%
Result
Eric Staal favored at 82.5%
82.5%
17.5%
Staal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Staal
O'Reilly
Last 9: Staal 2-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Staal
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Staal
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Staal
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (930)
60.3% (1,517)
-9.3%
Power Play
54.4% (125)
61.5% (387)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (60)
55.0% (220)
-6.7%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Staal is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Staal shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,411).
Home / Away
Staal
O'Reilly
Home
53.5% (561)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
48.9% (554)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Staal
O'Reilly
P1
50.1%
56.8%
P2
50.3%
64.6%
P3
53.1%
58.5%
OT
53.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
51.2%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2018 | 3 | 01:25 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 2 | 04:14 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 2 | 04:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 3 | 05:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 2 | 09:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 2 | 07:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 1 | 13:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 1 | 12:28 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |