Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 46.6% vs Aho 51.2% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 69.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 81.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 64.9%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Staal
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Staal
Aho
Last 6: Staal 2-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Staal
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Staal
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (565)
48.5% (778)
+1.1%
Power Play
35.0% (20)
63.4% (191)
-28.4%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (158)
50.8% (65)
-15.4%
On power play, Aho has a +28.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Staal is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Staal shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Staal
Aho
Home
46.1% (380)
51.3% (530)
Away
46.3% (363)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Staal
Aho
P1
45.7%
50.0%
P2
46.2%
51.3%
P3
46.5%
52.1%
Final 5 min
47.4%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 18:00 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 3 | 02:07 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |