Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Rodrigues wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Spezza 54.7% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 72.2%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 72.5%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 73.9%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Rodrigues
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Rodrigues
Spezza
Last 10: Rodrigues 4-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
1
Rodrigues
Spezza
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
6
Rodrigues
Spezza
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Spezza
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
54.4% (7,990)
-8.2%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
56.8% (1,726)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
52.7% (643)
-9.8%
On power play, Spezza has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Rodrigues is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (978).
Rodrigues shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Spezza
Home
47.1% (1,820)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Rodrigues
Spezza
P1
46.9%
55.7%
P2
46.1%
54.4%
P3
44.6%
54.1%
OT
48.5%
51.5%
Final 5 min
48.1%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:27 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 01:58 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 01:53 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 02:53 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 13:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 1 | 16:39 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 1 | 04:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 09:32 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |