Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.3% vs Zibanejad 51.6% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 68.5%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 72.0%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 69.7%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
3
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (637)
53.4% (770)
-5.5%
Power Play
47.9% (71)
46.2% (39)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (67)
44.7% (141)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Zibanejad has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Rodrigues shoots right. Zibanejad is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
Home
48.3% (429)
49.0% (429)
Away
45.4% (346)
54.1% (521)
By Period
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
P1
48.3%
53.0%
P2
46.9%
51.1%
P3
45.6%
51.0%
OT
44.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:21 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 11:04 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |