Scouting Report
Tyson Kozak holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Kozak 48.8% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 77.9%
Defensive zone
Kozak 55.4%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 62.8%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Rodrigues
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Rodrigues
Kozak
Last 5: Rodrigues 1-4 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Kozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
2
Rodrigues
Kozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
2
Rodrigues
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
48.3% (431)
-2.1%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
62.5% (8)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
48.9% (45)
-6.0%
On power play, Kozak has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Rodrigues shoots right. Kozak is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Kozak
Home
47.1% (1,820)
47.6% (229)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Rodrigues
Kozak
P1
46.9%
54.4%
P2
46.1%
45.7%
P3
44.6%
45.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:59 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:01 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |