Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 35.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 43.5% vs Kesler 56.0% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 78.0%
Defensive zone
Malkin 77.5%
Neutral zone
Malkin 83.8%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 80.8%
80.8%
19.2%
Malkin
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Malkin
Kesler
Last 6: Malkin 1-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Malkin
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Malkin
Kesler
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
2
Malkin
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (733)
57.4% (1,185)
-14.3%
Power Play
31.3% (16)
58.0% (243)
-26.7%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
49.2% (236)
-32.5%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Malkin is 35.0% vs right-shot opponents (266).
Malkin shoots left. Kesler is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,075).
Home / Away
Malkin
Kesler
Home
42.6% (338)
58.5% (793)
Away
42.7% (417)
54.3% (871)
By Period
Malkin
Kesler
P1
40.9%
57.0%
P2
45.3%
55.4%
P3
42.0%
56.7%
OT
40.0%
54.8%
Final 5 min
46.1%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
42.6%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2015 | 3 | 16:52 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2015 | 1 | 16:17 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2015 | 1 | 10:26 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2015 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 6, 2015 | 1 | 04:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 6, 2015 | 1 | 01:46 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |